Pakistan Braces for Major Water Deficit This Kharif Season Amid India's Upstream Restrictions

Pakistan Braces for Major Water Deficit This Kharif Season Amid India's Upstream Restrictions

 

Pakistan Water Crisis

Pakistan is confronting a severe water crisis as it enters the 2025 Kharif season, with escalating tensions over India's upstream water management decisions. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India has intensified concerns, especially as Pakistan's agriculture heavily relies on the Indus River system.

The Indus Waters Treaty: A Historical Overview

Established in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) facilitated the division of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. India was allocated the eastern rivers Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej while Pakistan received rights over the western rivers Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. This agreement has been a cornerstone in managing water resources and maintaining peace between the two nations.

India's Suspension of the Treaty and Its Implications

In response to a deadly attack in Kashmir, which India attributes to Pakistani militants, India has unilaterally suspended the IWT. This move includes accelerating hydroelectric projects on the Chenab River, such as the Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Ratle dams, totaling over 3,000 MW in capacity. These developments threaten to alter the flow of water into Pakistan, raising alarms about potential agricultural and energy shortages. 

Impact on Pakistan's Agriculture and Water Supply

The Kharif season, crucial for crops like cotton, rice, and sugarcane, is under threat due to reduced water availability. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has reported significant water shortages, with Sindh facing a 50% deficit. Both Tarbela and Mangla dams have reached critical levels, exacerbating the situation. 

Political and Regional Tensions

Pakistan views India's actions as a breach of international agreements, considering any diversion of water as an act of aggression. The situation has led to heightened diplomatic strains, with both countries imposing restrictions and suspending bilateral engagements. 

Environmental Concerns and the Cholistan Canal Project

Within Pakistan, projects like the Cholistan Canal Project have sparked internal debates. Aimed at irrigating barren lands, the project has faced opposition from Sindh province, which fears further depletion of its water resources. Environmentalists also warn of potential ecological damage to the Indus Delta.

The Path Forward

Addressing this multifaceted crisis requires diplomatic engagement, sustainable water management practices, and regional cooperation. Both India and Pakistan must prioritize dialogue to ensure equitable water distribution and prevent further escalation.